Job Growth Stalls: Trump Faces Political Storm

The White House is pre-spinning weak February job numbers as a triumph of Trump’s immigration enforcement, but the underlying data reveals an economy on shakier ground than the administration wants Americans to believe.

Story Snapshot

White House adviser Kevin Hassett warns that January job growth will be “smaller” due to illegal immigrants leaving the country, attempting to reframe weakness as policy success
December 2025 saw job openings plummet to mid-2020 lows while layoffs doubled to 108,000, with the private sector adding just 22,000 jobs in January
Unemployment remains stuck at 4.4% as consumers report historic levels of job loss anxiety, signaling a troubling shift from inflation fears to employment concerns
Young workers face unemployment above 10% while Trump’s economic approval sits 14 points underwater, complicating the narrative of immigration-driven efficiency gains

White House Frames Deportations as Economic Efficiency

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CNBC on February 9, 2026, that Americans should expect lower job growth numbers when the Labor Department releases its January report on February 11.

Hassett attributed the anticipated weakness to a declining labor force resulting from “illegals leaving the country,” combined with strong GDP growth and surging productivity. He urged against panic, characterizing the situation as “unusual circumstances.”

Economists forecast only 70,000 nonfarm payroll additions for January, following December’s anemic 50,000 gain. This messaging strategy attempts to preempt criticism by reframing subdued hiring as evidence that deportations are boosting efficiency rather than signaling economic distress.

Labor Market Shows Clear Cooling Beyond Immigration Effects

The data tells a more concerning story than the White House spin suggests. Job openings dropped to mid-2020 pandemic lows in late 2025, while layoffs doubled to 108,000 in December. ADP’s private sector report revealed just 22,000 jobs added in January 2026, and jobless claims have spiked. The unemployment rate has climbed from 4.0% to 4.4% over the past year, with youth unemployment exceeding 10%.

Benchmark revisions project 911,000 fewer jobs for 2025 than initially reported, potentially making it a negative year for employment growth. These indicators reflect broader economic pressures from tariffs and immigration restrictions, not merely a shrinking workforce from deportations as Hassett claims.

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Stagflation Conditions Emerge Despite Productivity Gains

America enters 2026 facing stagflation conditions that contradict the administration’s optimistic productivity narrative. Inflation has increased to 2.8% from 2.2%, while job growth weakens and interest rates remain stubbornly high.

Consumer sentiment surveys from the University of Michigan and New York Fed show historic levels of job loss anxiety and debt concerns, representing a fundamental shift from inflation worries to employment fears.

Economist Joe Brusuelas of RSM US captured the political bind, noting that productivity gains allowing firms to “do more with less” may satisfy Wall Street but prove “hell” for politicians. The Roosevelt Institute characterizes 2026 as a “meh” year following stagflation, warning that weak job growth concentrated in health and education sectors could signal a K-shaped recovery, widening inequality rather than broad-based prosperity.

Political Fallout Mounts as Economic Approval Craters

President Trump faces significant political headwinds from the weakening labor market, with economic approval ratings sitting 14 points underwater according to Economist/YouGov polling. The administration’s tax cuts for wealthy Americans, enacted without IRS withholding updates, threaten to create large but unevenly distributed refunds that could spike deficits and inflation.

Young workers and long-term unemployed bear the brunt of the slowdown, while lower-income households miss out on meaningful tax relief. The fundamental challenge for the White House is that while immigration enforcement may deliver symbolic victories to the base, Americans experiencing real job insecurity and affordability pressures won’t accept explanations that blame their economic anxiety on necessary policy adjustments.

The upcoming January jobs report will test whether Hassett’s pre-spinning succeeds or whether voters recognize an economy that has clearly slowed beyond what immigration policy alone can explain.

The administration’s attempt to recast weakness as strength through deportation-driven labor force reductions represents a gamble that productivity narratives can overcome kitchen-table economic realities. With GDP growth continuing but job creation concentrated in narrow sectors, the question becomes whether Americans will credit Trump’s policies for efficiency gains or hold him accountable for employment insecurity.

The February 11 jobs report will provide the first major test of this messaging strategy, but underlying trends suggest the political pain from labor market cooling will persist regardless of how the White House frames the numbers.