Niall Ferguson, a historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow, claimed that former President Donald Trump is the most likely candidate to win the 2024 presidential election.
In an op-ed published in The Spectator, Ferguson argued that as time progresses, the possibility of Trump winning back the White House and serving a second term is becoming more and more likely. He proceeded to argue that even a prolonged “campaign of lawfare” would not be enough to block Trump from reclaiming the White House.
On May 9th, Trump was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation against writer E. Jean Carroll in a New York civil case. Carroll has alleged that Trump raped her in the mid-1990s in a department store in Manhattan. However, even following the verdict Trump has not faced scrutiny.
Instead, as Ferguson points out, all of these legal cases have resulted in Trump getting more attention from the media. This media coverage in Trump’s world is free publicity which is something that Trump has always taken full advantage of.
When it comes to the 2024 GOP primary, Ferguson claimed that Trump is the “clear frontrunner” and that the Republican primary process tends to favor those who manage to gain an early lead. According to a Fox News survey from April, Trump received 53 percent of Republican primary voters’ support in a hypothetical 2020 Republican primary, while Gov. Ron DeSantis had 32 points.
Ferguson further argued that a potential recession would help increase the odds of Trump winning in 2024.