Polling Bombshell As Debate Nears

Biden v. Trump

(TheIndependentStar.com) – In poll findings that spell doom for President Joe Biden and a White House return for Donald Trump ahead of their first debate on June 27, Trump is currently outpacing the incumbent in six pivotal swing states.

According to data from Emerson College, Biden has only secured a tie with Trump in Minnesota—a state that has consistently chosen the Democratic nominee since 1976.

This poll is notably one of the initial surveys released following Trump’s conviction on 34 counts in a business records case by a Manhattan jury in May, Breitbart News reports.

Despite this conviction, Trump’s lead in these crucial states has remained largely consistent since the April Emerson poll.

Doug Sosnik, a seasoned Democratic adviser, highlighted in an article for the New York Times that seven states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina—are key to determining the next president.

“If Trump wins one or more of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Biden’s chances of obtaining 270 electoral votes become narrower,” Sosnik pointed out.

In its June findings, Emerson polling reported the following:

  1. Arizona: 47% Trump (+4), 43% Biden
  2. Georgia: 45% Trump (+4), 41% Biden
  3. Michigan: 46% Trump (+1), 45% Biden
  4. Minnesota: 45% Trump (-), 45% Biden
  5. Nevada: 46% Trump (+2), 43% Biden
  6. Pennsylvania: 47% Trump (+2), 45% Biden
  7. Wisconsin: 47% Trump (+3), 44% Biden

This poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from June 12-18, 2024, and maintains a margin of error of ± 3 percent.

Trump appears to be gaining significant traction among various demographic groups that previously supported Biden in the 2020 election.

Notably, a Times analysis published Thursday indicates that Biden’s support among women has plummeted to the lowest level for a Democrat since 2004, while Trump has achieved an eight-point advantage over Biden within the same group.

Trump’s increasing popularity among women correlates with his enhanced standing among black and Hispanic voters, traditionally steadfast supporters of the Democratic Party.

According to data from Gallup and Siena College, Democratic gains among these voters have declined to the lowest in 60 years.

Consequently, proportions of Hispanic and black men voting for Trump could reach levels unprecedented in modern American political history.

Wall Street Journal polling indicates that 30 percent of black men and 11 percent of black women plan to vote for Trump in 2024, a substantial increase from 2020 figures, where only 12 percent of black men and six percent of black women supported Trump, according to voting data and Associated Press polling.

In the Hispanic demographic, Trump currently leads Biden by five points (39-34 percent), marking a significant gain of 33 points from the 2020 election results (32 percent-65 percent), as reported by a USA Today/Suffolk University poll.

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