With less than 50 days until the midterms, Democrats are flying high on the wings of enthusiasm as Republicans attempt to reframe the midterm election as a referendum on President Joe Biden and Democrats.
Just a few months ago, the roles were reversed. Republicans were the ones flying high as they were forecast to win majorities in the House and Senate.
But following the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v Wade and a grueling primary, Republicans are firmly on the back foot.
Roe v Wade, in particular, gave Democrats powerful themes to run on, as they could frame the midterms as important in preventing more of their freedoms from being attacked by Republicans.
Democratic strategist and senior adviser to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Antjuan Seawright, explained his forecasting philosophy, saying, “I:m from South Carolina and the one thing we know is it’s never good to predict the weather five or six months out.”
Seawright continued, “Every election is difficult because there are so many things you can and cannot control.”
Although Republicans are no longer favored to win the Senate majority, they still hold the advantage in the House of Representatives. Redistricting and voter worries about inflation are two factors giving Republicans the edge in the House.
The headwinds Republicans face in the Senate, where they only need one more seat to gain a majority, have even been acknowledged by the GOP’s leaders. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY.) made a startling comment about “candidate quality,” saying, “there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate.”