Democrats are now leading Republicans in generic midterm ballots, according to recent polls.
FiveThirtyEight’s recent collection of surveys shows Democrats have beaten Republicans in three of four most recent polls where voters were asked who’d they would support in upcoming races.
A Yahoo News/YouGov poll published on Tuesday (6 September) found that 45 percent of voters would be backing the Democratic Congressional candidate in the midterms if it were to be held today, compared to 40 percent who said the same about Republicans.
A Morning Consult poll also released on Tuesday had a much narrower margin. The poll showed Democrats had a two percent lead in that poll, getting 47 percent support, compared to Republicans’ 45 percent.
An Inside Advantage survey shows voters prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress, with 44.7 percent of voters preferring Democratic candidates and only 43.5 percent backing Republican candidates.
Yet an OnMessage poll, sponsored by the GOP group Senate Opportunity Fund, placed Republicans ahead of Democrats in early September polling by two percentage points. Republicans received 46 percent of support, whereas Democrats only had 44 percent.
These recent polling victories for Democrats now mean that in national average polling, Democrats have finally taken the lead over Republicans. The generic poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 44.8 percent to 43.9 percent.
Republicans have slowly been losing their lead over Democrats in generic polling. In July, they held a marginal 1.6 percentage lead; in August, the parties were tied, and in September, they trailed Democrats by 0.9 percentage points.