Democrats Secure House Ahead Of Midterms?

Photo by Ian Hutchinson on Unsplash

Analysis by the national poll tracker, FiveThirtyEight, shows Democrats’ chances of holding onto the House and Senate in November’s midterms improving.

Current forecasts suggest Republicans will gain the majority in the Lower Chamber while Democrats will retain the majority in the Upper Chamber.

But FiveThirtyEight’s analysis shows a slight change in those forecasts owing to Democrats picking up momentum.

According to analysis, Republicans have a 72 percent chance of gaining victory in the House while Democrats have a 28 percent chance. Despite the scales still overwhelmingly being in Republicans’ favor, the figures show a three percentage point rebound for Democrats.

Two weeks earlier, on Friday (September 2), the same analysis showed Republicans at 75 percent and Democrats at 25 percent.

In the Senate, the odds are stacked against Republicans. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis shows Democrats have a 71 percent chance of winning the Senate compared to Republicans’ 29 percent.

Two weeks earlier, the same analysis placed Democrats’ chances at 68 percent and Republicans’ chances at 32 percent.

The two-week change also represents a change in Democrats’ rating. Dems were previously rated as “slightly favored” to win the Senate; now they’re rated “favored” to win the Senate.

The analysis is reflective of Democrats steadily rebounding in the polls in recent weeks following a string of legislative victories and abortion rights reemerging as an issue following the Supreme Court’s June ruling that overturned Roe v Wade.

But whether Democrats can build on this momentum enough to retain — or improve on – the majority they hold in the House of Representatives and Senate remains to be seen. Yet, if they could accomplish this statistically unlikely feat, it would be a significant win for President Joe Biden and the administration’s agenda.